By C. F. Hollander, H. A. Becker (auth.), C. F. Hollander, H. A. Becker (eds.)

This book represents the document of the state of affairs Committee on getting old. The draft file was once mentioned with a variety of specialists, inter alia through the symposium 'Growing previous sooner or later' hung on October twenty seventh, 1984. as well as the state of affairs document, a history document containing the elemental research hired within the situations on getting older has been ready. The situation document has been written in this sort of manner that it may be learn independently of the history examine. eventualities are a comparatively new phenomenon in future health care and similar coverage. hence it would be worthy to provide the reader with a couple of feedback. As a primary step, perusing the precis will give you the reader with an ~verall photograph of this program of the state of affairs technique in coverage training and coverage implementation within the area health and wellbeing of the aged. As a moment step, we'd suggest that the state of affairs document be learn in its totality. it'd be necessary to notice down issues on which the reader wish to make additions or variations.

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Additional info for Growing Old in the Future: Scenarios on health and ageing 1984–2000

Example text

SocioI biological I disposition: economic situation l_________ ---- I 6. demographic developments 3. norms and values 4. lifestyles and phycisal environment 5. research and techno~ logy 7. health status the elderly 10. people in the neighbourhood 13. housing and n. skills -------~ health services L----r---;----1 12. personality and philosophy of life residential environment 8. demand for ~ 14. demand for supply of financial position 15. old age and retirement pensions 9. 3 Taking a further look at scenarios In the first place, it would seem desirable to give a definition of the concept scenario.

And by the level of the costs of facilities for the elderly. 5) These developments are closely related, since the higher average life expectancy of women means that a lot of women survive their husbands. Consequently the category of persons living alone contains more women than men. The same applies to the category of the very elderly, which is composed mainly of women. Appendix B gives an overview of the development of the absolute number of elderly according to sex and civil status till the year 2030 (medium variant).

On the basis of information from experts, medical and medical-technological developments till the year 2000 are indicated fairly unequivocally. This has led to the decision not to differentiate this component in the growth and shrinkage scenarios. Next follows the growth scenario. As opposed to the reference scenario, this scenario proceeds from a significant increase in the demand for health care facilities, an increase which is larger than might have been expected on the basis of the calculations in the reference scenario.

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